A Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season? Here's What Offshore Workers Need to Know
On May 21, 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a forecast that surprised many in the maritime industry: the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below normal.
For maritime workers who have endured years of increasingly active hurricane seasons, this might sound like welcome news. But as NOAA officials emphasized during their announcement at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, a below-normal forecast doesn't mean the season will be safe. And it certainly doesn't mean offshore employers can let their guard down.
How Rare Is a Below-Normal Forecast?
NOAA's prediction of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season is notable precisely because it's so uncommon. The last time NOAA forecast a below-normal season was 2015. That year also featured El Niño conditions similar to those developing now.
In recent years, NOAA has more frequently predicted near-normal or above-normal seasons. But as maritime and offshore oil and gas workers know all too well, forecasts are predictions, not guarantees. The 2025 season, which NOAA initially predicted would include 13 to 19 named storms, ended with 13 named storms, on the lower end of the forecast range. Yet 2025 still produced three Category 5 hurricanes (Erin, Humberto, and Melissa), just one shy of the all-time record of four Category 5 storms in a single season.
Even "quieter" seasons can produce devastating storms.
What NOAA Is Predicting for 2026
NOAA's outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 through November 30, includes the following predictions:
Season probability:
- 55% chance of below-normal activity
- 35% chance of near-normal activity
- 10% chance of above-normal activity
Expected storm totals:
- 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 3-6 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher)
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. NOAA's forecast suggests 2026 could fall below these averages, with 70% confidence in the predicted ranges.
Why Is 2026 Expected to Be Below Normal?
The primary driver of the below-normal forecast is El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warming ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. El Niño has significant downstream effects on weather patterns across the globe, including the Atlantic hurricane basin.
When El Niño develops during the Atlantic hurricane season, it tends to create increased vertical wind shear (differences in wind speed and direction at different altitudes) over the tropical Atlantic. This wind shear disrupts the organized atmospheric circulation that hurricanes need to form and intensify.
Essentially, El Niño creates hostile conditions for hurricane development.
NOAA forecasters expect El Niño to develop and intensify during the 2026 hurricane season. If a "super El Niño,” an exceptionally strong version of the pattern, develops during the second half of the season, it could suppress storm activity even further during what is typically the most active period from mid-September through October.
However, other factors work against the El Niño effect. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be warmer than normal, and trade winds are likely to be weaker than average. Both of these conditions favor hurricane development.
This creates a tug-of-war between conditions that suppress hurricanes and conditions that support them. NOAA's forecast suggests that El Niño's suppressive effects will win out, resulting in fewer storms overall.
What Other Forecasters Are Saying
While NOAA is the authoritative voice on hurricane forecasting, other meteorological organizations have released their own predictions for the 2026 season, providing additional perspectives on what to expect.
AccuWeather released its forecast in March 2026, several weeks before NOAA's official outlook. The private weather forecasting company predicts 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes.
Like NOAA, AccuWeather cites the developing El Niño as the primary reason for expecting near-to-below average activity. AccuWeather's forecast specifically notes that a super El Niño phenomenon has a 15% chance of developing in the second half of the season, which could further reduce storm activity during the climatological peak in September and October.
AccuWeather forecasters expect three to five direct impacts on the United States during the 2026 season, where a "direct impact" includes landfall, a storm passing within 60 miles of the coast, tropical-storm-force winds on land, flooding from a tropical system, or storm surge exceeding 2 feet.
The Rapid Intensification Concern
While both NOAA and AccuWeather predict below-normal storm counts, AccuWeather highlighted a critical concern: rapid intensification remains a significant threat.
Warm ocean temperatures extending hundreds of feet below the surface can cause storms to strengthen explosively in a short amount of time, sometimes jumping from Category 1 to Category 3 or higher in less than 24 hours. This dramatically decreases preparation and evacuation timelines, leaving crews on vessels and offshore platforms vulnerable if their employers do not prioritize evacuation or evasion.
The 2025 season demonstrated this threat. Three storms (Erin, Humberto, and Melissa) all quickly intensified to rare Category 5 status. For a season that ended with near-average storm totals, the intensity of the strongest hurricanes was extraordinary.
Below Normal Doesn't Mean Safe
Predictions of a below-average season do not guarantee a “safe” season. It only takes one storm to wreak havoc among coastal communities, offshore operations, and vessels at sea.
1965’s Hurricane Betsy occurred during an El Niño year and became one of the most destructive hurricanes in Louisiana history, bringing major wind damage and catastrophic flooding to southeast Louisiana, including the New Orleans area.
More recently, the 2015 season (the last time NOAA predicted below-normal activity) ended with 12 named storms, below the average of 14. But those 12 storms still caused significant impacts, with reports of 88 lives lost and $590 million in damages in Dominica and the southern Bahamas.
What This Means for Offshore Workers
Offshore oil and gas workers, maritime crews, and others working in the Gulf and Atlantic waters face hurricane risks regardless of forecasts. Platforms must be secured or evacuated when major storms approach. Production must be shut down. Workers face dangerous helicopter or boat evacuations in deteriorating weather. Some ride out storms on platforms, enduring hurricane-force winds and massive waves.
The below-normal forecast for 2026 offers no guarantee of safety for offshore operations.
Consider what NOAA's forecast actually means:
- Best case scenario (8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane): Even in the most optimistic outcome within NOAA's forecast range, offshore workers still face one major hurricane capable of causing catastrophic damage.
- Upper range scenario (14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes): At the upper end of NOAA's forecast, the season approaches normal activity levels. Three major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic could each threaten offshore operations, requiring multiple evacuations and extended production shutdowns.
- The wildcard (rapid intensification): As AccuWeather noted, warm ocean temperatures below the surface create conditions for rapid intensification. A storm that seems manageable may quickly escalate, leaving little time for evacuation or evasion.
NOAA's forecast also doesn't predict where storms will go or when they'll make landfall. A below-normal season with 10 named storms could still see multiple storms targeting the Gulf. Geographic distribution matters as much as overall totals, and forecasts can't predict months in advance which areas will face the greatest threats.
Preparation Remains Essential
NOAA's message is unambiguous: prepare now, regardless of the forecast.
"Preparing now for hurricane season—and not waiting for a storm to threaten—is essential for staying ahead of any storm," said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
Offshore operators and employers must take reasonable measures to protect workers from harm. This includes:
- Comprehensive hurricane response plans
- Equipment that is properly secured and stored
- Clear evacuation procedures and regular evacuation drills
- Reliable communication and weather monitoring systems
NOAA will update its seasonal outlook in early August, ahead of the historical peak of hurricane season from mid-September through October. Forecasts can and do change as the season develops and as meteorologists gather more data about evolving conditions.
Your Legal Rights During Hurricane Season
Offshore workers have specific legal protections under maritime law that apply before, during, and after hurricane season. Employers must provide a safe workplace, including adequate hurricane preparation, safe evacuation procedures, and equipment properly secured to prevent injury during storms. You cannot be required to work in unreasonably dangerous conditions. If storm conditions make work unsafe, employers have a duty to evacuate or shelter workers appropriately.
The Jones Act protects workers injured during hurricane evacuation, during storm response operations, or due to inadequate storm preparation. If negligence contributes to your injury, you have the right to sue for compensation. Unseaworthiness claims apply when platforms aren't properly prepared for storms, when equipment isn't secured adequately, or when safety systems fail during hurricane conditions.
If you've been injured during hurricane season operations or have lost a family member to a storm-related offshore accident, an experienced maritime attorney can help you understand your rights and pursue the compensation you deserve.
Call (888) 346-5024 or contact us online for a free consultation.
